The median and average Greater Las Vegas residential pricing and expert predictions which are built up on these numbers are akin to someone saying that the median or average price of food items in a Super WalMart are $3.45. What does that number tell you? Does it tell you what the price of a gallon of milk or a pound of prime rib is? Or that if the average prices go down to $3.35 that a gallon of milk and a pound of prime rib will go down by ten cents? Absolutely not, and the same applies to the Las Vegas median price; all it tells is that the median or average of the aggregate properties which are sold at a period of time is X dollars.
In order to explain this better I will use Glengarry, a neighborhood at the southern tip of Anthem Highlands in Henderson, Nevada. This neighborhood had sold most of the homes in 2005-early 2006, and some have been resold.
In order to compare apples to apples, I have chosen Model 2462 in Glengarry which are sold in 2006-2007 and have placed the MLS median price next to the sold price in order to show you the fallacy of these median and average numbers and to prevent buyers from erroneously putting too much emphasis on the news articles and expert predictions. The median prices are from the Las Vegas MLS and you can find them in my Greater Las Vegas New and Resale Homes, Condos and Town Homes Market Statistics Report.
| Address |
Living area |
Lot size |
Sold date |
Sold price |
MLS median prices at the time |
| 2822 CULLODEN AVE 89044 |
2462 |
7204 |
April 2006 |
$503,990 |
$310,000 |
| 2816 KINKNOCKIE WY 89044 |
2462 |
4226 |
May 2006 |
$450,990 |
$310,000 |
| 2816 DUNNOTTAR AVE 89044 |
2462 |
4410 |
June 2006 |
$448,990 |
$315,000 |
| 2840 DUNNOTTAR AVE 89044 |
2462 |
4154 |
August 2006 |
$448,390 |
$312,000 |
| 2854 CULLODEN AVE 89044 |
2462 |
4000 |
Nov 2006 |
$496,000 |
$308,000 |
| 2855 DUNNOTTAR AVE 89044 |
2462 |
5620 |
November 2006 |
$411,546 |
$308,000 |
| 2749 DRUMLANRIG ST 89044 |
2462 |
4563 |
February 2007 |
$384,312 |
$310,000 |
| 2872 TROSSACHS ST 89044 |
2462 |
8094 |
March 2007 |
$426,890 |
$305,000 |
| 2848 TROSSACHS ST 89044 |
2462 |
5142 |
March 2007 |
$394,790 |
$302,000 |
| 2849 TROSSACHS ST 89044 |
2462 |
6691 |
May 2007 |
$369,993 |
$302,000 |
| 2836 TROSSACHS ST 89044 |
2462 |
4993 |
May 2007 |
$320,000 |
$302,000 |
| 2856 TROSSACHS ST 89044 |
2462 |
4377 |
May 2007 |
$379,990 |
$302,000 |
| 2803 DUNNOTTAR AVE 89044 |
2462 |
4655 |
July 2007 |
$364,583 |
$295,000 |
| 2808 KINKNOCKIE WY 89044 |
2462 |
4775 |
December 2007 |
$305,500 |
$273,500* |
| 2830 KINKNOCKIE WY 89044 |
2462 |
4244 |
December 2007 |
$241,242 |
$273,500 |
I challenge you to find any mathematically valid correlation between the sold and the median numbers other than the fact that both pointed toward a downward trend and the median prices missed that too as I guarantee you that home prices did not start to go up in June-Aug 2006.
More analysis in the next blog post. All the information in this article is publicly available to anyone.
Related web-site pages
- Buy a new single family home, Buy a resale single family home, Buy a Las Vegas condo conversion, Buy a Las Vegas resale condo
Chat about this and more in our Las Vegas Real Estate Forum
GOD Bless and be well, Masoud
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