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Iran election fallouts are the top news in the world and here is my take on it. But before I start I need to mention that I have built the web site and blog upon leveraging one’s assets efficiently to achieve success in real estate negotiations or any other situation. I have also written repeatedly that to achieve good understanding of any event it has to be viewed in the context of applicable processes and not as a single event.

Iran is a young and vibrant country with 60% of its population under 30 years old, which is slowly, but progressively moving toward democracy. Now, democracy is representative of the society and in Iranian culture, democracy is a new phenomenon which has to be learned and the new generation (under 30) has learned it well. I was amazed at the tolerance and respect that followers of different presidential candidates showed toward each other. I never even saw these people so much as yell at each other while campaigning for their candidate.

Iranian society is a mixture of authoritarian and democratic societies which is moving toward democracy.   Iranians at all levels like to meddle in their relative’s and friend’s life and fully expect for their advice to be followed. Parents feel that they are the ones who should choose their kids spouses, field of study or future job, etc.

Even at low levels, a significant number of private or government workers do not feel that it is their job to help customers and act as if they are doing the customer a favor. Management is weak. I will give an example here, Queuing Theory is a graduate level engineering course that discusses the most efficient way to receive an information packet from the internet that is waiting in a line or queue. The same can be applied to a bank line were tellers have to help bank customers that are waiting in a line. It is mathematically proven that most efficient to do this is to have a roped line that you see in airports or banks. All customers can wait in one line and can be called upon by the bank teller when a vacancy is created and the teller is ready to receive the next customer. Doing so saves time, maintains order, so no one can cut into the line and makes it easier on the teller as they can call on new customers when they are ready. I have never seen this in any bank, hospital or any other place in Iran, except at the airport. People gather at a bank counter on both sides of the teller and can see what other customers are doing; there is perpetual pressure on the teller as he has to answer multiple customers at the same time. While Mr. Ahmadinejad wants to manage the world, I suggest that he start with banks and governmental agencies in Iran, all he needs is some rope and polls. Nevertheless an evolutionary cultural change in people’s attitude toward order is needed and it takes time; not all is the governments fault.

Now, about Mr. Ahmadinejad, A leader has to be a good manager, a problem solver and have a vision for the future of the country. Mr. Ahmadinejad lacks all of these qualities. He is not a good manager since he has squandered more than $275 billion dollars in oil revenue in his four years of presidency by implementing the wrong policies. Iran’s economy is suffering from double digit inflation and although employment is defined as working more than 2 hours week, still unemployment in Iran is in double digits.

His talent is not managing numbers but he is very good at making them up. In his presidential campaign video he claimed to have started 100,000 projects and finished 70,000. He has been president for 3 years and 10 months or 1368 days. If he worked 24 hours a day and dedicated all his time to these projects, he has started and finished 51 projects a day or 1 every ½ hour. Just how much thought and planning could have gone into these projects? How many jobs did they create? What is the long term effect of these projects? No wonder the economy is in shambles.

His foreign policy and unmeasured claims and speeches have resulted in imposition of damaging sanctions on Iran and severe damage to the international image of a peace loving country which has not started a war in the last 300 years, however has been attacked repeatedly. One can’t go through life by screaming that I am going to slap this, punch that and wipeout the other, while doing none. As the ugly in the Good, The Bad and The Ugly said, when you want to shoot, shoot, don’t talk. Although hard working and not financially corrupt, Mr. Ahmadinejad is a power hungry political knife fighter who wrongly attacked his opponent’s wife (a no no in Iran) in a debate and doesn’t possess the temperament to be a president. A president is supposed to act like a gentleman after all.

Reformers in Iran decided to fight Mr. Ahmadinejad by nominating Mr. Mir Hussein Mosavi an ex-prime minister who I am told managed Iran well during the 8 year war with Iraq.  I don’t know much about him. He was chosen because he has impeccable revolutionary credentials and can’t be accused of corruption or being an agent of foreign governments. He was pretty much out of government for the last 20 years.

In the last nights of my stay in Iran, I witnessed campaigning like I have never seen in the last 30 years in the US. There was an amazing backlash against Mr. Ahmadinejad. Tehran a city of 14 million plus was shut down after 7 pm until 4 am by campaigners gathering in the streets. People were campaigning for Mr. Mosavi and many who didn’t vote in the last 30 years were going to vote this time. This makes a 2 to 1 landslide in favor of Mr. Ahmadinejad very unlikely. All know what happened since the result of the election was announced, in one demonstration, 3 million demonstrated in favor of Mr. Mosavi (Tehran City Hall announced this number). Again demonstrators have showed their maturity and tolerance by minimizing damage to public or private properties.

Regardless of the outcome of the current situation, Mr. Mosavi has suddenly gained the support and leadership of at least 33% of the population (Iranian government’s number) who are educated, rich, computer savvy, digitally connected and highly motivated. These people braved the unknown when they demonstrated for the first time after the election and are standing up to the establishment. I certainly hope that he can lead them well by out-thinking his opponents and not getting in to a premature scrimmage with the government. He has time to identify, organize, network and impose discipline on his backers and in two to four years he will be unstoppable while winning election after election. Winning in politics, as in any other matter needs preparation and time and thinking.

One last point: All of a sudden the same Republicans, like the chief hypocrite Mr. Cantor, who were calling for a US attack on Iran or bombing it to oblivion are suddenly worried about human rights in Iran. Don’t believe crocodile tears, these guys know very well that any US comment or backing of the demonstrators is the kiss of death to them, literary. If the US or backs the demonstrators, they will be called the agents of a foreign government and enemies of Islam in which case wiping them out will be the government’s duty and President Obama knows this. Those US politicians that are “backing freedom in Iran” want nothing more than an Iran that is burning in a civil war.  An unstable Iran or one in civil war is not in the best interest of the US as Iran is the chief enemy of Al-Qaida and Taliban in the Middle East.