In the last blog post I wrote “I have designed the web-site and blog so it attracts educated buyers and sellers. The problem is that some of these people believe that they know the Las Vegas real estate market better than I do. NOT happening and I don’t appreciate it. Since so far, I am the most accurate predictor of the market direction, especially since the meltdown as we started to get real numbers from the government and not “the fundamentals of our economy are strong”.
I love the blog since there is always a written record about what I write about.
Below are a few paragraphs from my Las Vegas real estate market predictions. You can find the blog post at Las Vegas Homes, Condos, Land and Commercial Real Estate Team wish all a Happy New Year.
”Masoud Saberzadeh’s predictions for 2009
3: Barring catastrophic economic events, Las Vegas residential pricing for homes and condominiums that are under $320,000 will pass the point of convection. (This is becoming true for homes under $200,000).
4: Las Vegas Land prices will be selling at 35%-40% of their peak pricing. (Asking for these parcels of land has not gone down to this level, but sold prices are)
5: Las Vegas Industrial properties prices will come down 40% from peak levels. (Same as above)
6: Asking prices at City Center will come down. (They kept denying this until last month, now they announced that they will cut prices, but not by how much).
7: If not now, barring catastrophic economic events, Las Vegas will offer the best investment opportunities on earth. I mean it as it is already possible to make 7% or more through investing in Las Vegas homes or condominiums. Las Vegas commercial real estate has a bit further to fall.” (10% or better cash on cash returns are possible now).
Keep in mind that it took a lot of courage and a bit of craziness to predict what I did on January 1st, 2009 when all that was being published were doom and gloom reports.
Now comes “proof” and it “has to be right” since it was printed in a newspaper
A few paragraphs from this newspaper article.
”It’s tough for owner-occupants with limited financing to compete against guys such as Bob Schulman, chairman of Las Vegas-based Montecito Cos. He started a fund capitalized by institutional and high- net-worth investors to acquire 100 to 125 foreclosed homes in Las Vegas, targeting the Summerlin and Green Valley master-planned communities. Subsequent funds could acquire up to 500 homes.
Schulman said he looked at all potential real estate opportunities — from new construction to value-added acquisitions of existing apartment, office and industrial properties — and determined that the best value was to be found in single-family homes.
Not only had they overcorrected in price, they were substantially undervalued, he said.
“We looked at residential land here with homes on it, and they were 30 percent to 40 percent below the cost to build,” Schulman said. “Why would I buy land? I can just buy the house with no risk.”
Murphy said investors such as Schulman are really driving the entry-level market and taking those homes out of the inventory, which declined in July to 11,905 listings from 20,641 a year ago.
“Frankly, that’s where the smart money is, and I can’t fault them,” Murphy said.”
Now this Schulman guy is the smart money due to his extensive experience with the Las Vegas real estate market.
Those who read my blogs on a regular basis have seen the same in my previous blogs, except that these blogs have been written months ago.
I have only written one sentence in my blogs that we will know much more about Las Vegas homes and condos market by November. I have told my big investors to wait until November to test the market and buy in Decmber-2009 to February 2010, because I believe that we will have more inventory and a better selection of homes and condominiums. The banks will be more open to negotiate when they have a larger inventory.”
This doesn’t apply to small investors. If you find a nice deal now, get it.
Some “analyst” predicts that home and condo inventory will be affected by expiration of the tax credit for 1st time home buyers. They should wait to see what the United States congress is going to do first.
One last point, DO NOT believe commercial real estate agents in Las Vegas that tell you I have a great deal for you. A great deal now, will not look so great in six months to a year. That is the reason that a big time commercial real estate investor is buying residential real estate now.
The current data are showing a false bottom and prices will go up and down in progressively narrow range for a while. But a good deal now for a Las Vegas home or condominium will still be a good deal come next year.
At the conclusion, real estate investors that get all their info from a few articles and think they know the real estate market in Las Vegas better than I do and go as far as e-mailing me such articles to prove their point. DON’T do it, this is not a Nike commercial.
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