Predictions by Las Vegas real estate analysts who wrongly GUESS at the number of unsold inventory bank owned homes are worthless
Las Vegas news organizations go to about a few so called “real estate analysts” in Las Vegas and interview the same people who have been wrong more times than they were right over and over again. The best analyst is Larry Murphy, the real estate analyst that I pay no attention to is Dennis Smith and unfortunately others do.
The reason that he is often wrong is due to fact that he GUESSES, rather than using relevant data to calculate results. Check out the following paragraph from his interview with the Las Vegas Sun today. In order to predict the future of the Las Vegas housing market, it is imperative to have a good estimate of shadow inventory of unsold foreclosure homes and this guy is GUESSING the number.
“How is there a lack of foreclosures on the market? Reporter
“The indication now is all that silent inventory that we have all heard talked about — my guess from 25,000 to 35,000 — the banks are holding them back and not going through foreclosure. They don’t want to see a sudden decline in prices. They want to see a consistency. They don’t want to hurt their numbers. I would rather take the hit and get it over with and move on. Then, it won’t drag out as long.” Dennis Smith.
I like to know what his GUESSES are based on. What this guy says negatively influences the Las Vegas housing market and the lives of distressed Las Vegas Realtors and commercial real estate agents, this is the reason that I am using his name in this post and decided to go after him a bit.
The reason that he is Guessing is that he is not aware of the formula to calculate the number or finding relevant data to do so. The links below are tutorial for Mr. Smith.
About Las Vegas Trustee Sale Auction and Las Vegas shadow home inventory Part-1 of 3
About Las Vegas Trustee Sale Auction and Las Vegas shadow home inventory Part-2 of 3
About Las Vegas Trustee Sale Auction and Las Vegas shadow home inventory Part-2.75 of 3
About Las Vegas Trustee Sale Auction and Las Vegas shadow home inventory Part-3 of 3
I would like to see Mr. Smith prove what he says about the unsold inventory of homes that banks are holding back. It is his job to collect and correlate the data and use mathematical formulas to arrive at a correct answer, just as I have shown. GUESSING doesn’t cut it.
For a kicker, I have never heard that a reporter would ask these people to prove their baseless assertions. This is the reason that I keep writing: don’t make a real estate decision based on news paper articles, they are worthless.
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Las vegas news » Real estate analyst Mr. Smith GUESSES the wrong number of Las … // Jul 16, 2010 at 4:06 pm
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Q&A: Dennis Smith | How to Buy a House in Foreclosure // Jul 17, 2010 at 7:00 am
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