Conflicting 2020 forecast for Las Vegas by Realtor dot com

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Two opposing Las Vegas housing market forecast for 2020. What are these PHD researchers at National Association of Realtors smoking?

Two opposing Las Vegas housing market forecast for 2020. What are these PHD researchers at National Association of Realtors smoking?

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) first Las Vegas housing market forecast for 2020 predicted about a 1.1% decrease in the median price of homes for 2020 and 9.5% decrease in the resale sales numbers.

In response, we quickly published our last blog post, Inflation-adjusted record median price of Las Vegas home in 2006 is $390,000 and wrote:

“We explained in the unusual Las Vegas real estate market forecast for 2020 video, that the true measure of home price gains or losses is the price per square foot ratio. It appreciated by 2.4% in 2019, but the same for 2017-2018 was in double-digit numbers.

If the current economic trends continue, we should see higher median prices and prices per square foot, probably in the 6% range.”

Well, the changed their tune a week later.

The following is from Las Vegas Review-Journal on January, 13th 2020.

First Las Vegas housing market report by NAR

“Listing site of predicted early last month that Southern Nevada’s median sales price of previously owned homes will fall 1.1 percent this year, compared with a 0.8 percent gain nationwide.

It also said resale totals would slide 1.8 percent nationally but drop 9.5 percent in Las Vegas, the third-steepest fall among the 100 metro areas listed in the report”.

Second Housing market report by NAR

Only a week later, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecast something entirely different.

It said “the Las Vegas real estate market is one of 10 that will outperform over the next three to five years, even though it did not offer specific sales or price predictions for each metro area.

Really? The market can go down in the price and sales numbers will drop by 9.5% and it is still one of the top ten cities in the United States to buys a home in the next 3 to 5 years? How? (Silly Stuff, I wonder what they have been smokingJ)

We still go with our forecast as I know numbers and evidently, they do not. Our prediction for the past 5 years have been pretty much on target and at least I am consistent and my numbers don’t conflict like this.

A few important points about the Las Vegas housing market that points to raising prices in this report were:

They put a lot of emphasis on the recent movers and here is their definition. “To define the origin of the recent movers, the study used the Metro Area-to-Metro Area Migration Flows 2013-2017 ACS data provided by the U.S. Census”. So, it took a couple PHD researchers and a bunch of assistants about 2 years to prepare this report, however the trend continues.

Now that it is defined we can move to the points:

1: about $362,000 moved to Las Vegas metro in 2013-2017

2: 29% are homeowners and 71% renters (evidence for raising rental rates that go on unabated)

3: this is the important number, 34% of renters can buy a typical home right now. This means that 21,000 renter who moved here could buy a typical residence since their median income is about $45,000. Keep in mind that these numbers point to “recent movers”, an additional 1.7 million residents already live in the metro and some of them need to buy residence as well while the listing inventory is still low.

As we have written before, if you are waiting for big price drops for Las Vegas homes, condos and townhouses, don’t hold your breath, you may turn blue.

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