Interesting point about the inflation-adjusted median price of Las Vegas homes and why we disagree with Realtor.com housing market report
Las Vegas Review-Journal has become subscription-based, so I can’t share their articles any longer. However, there were two points in their housing section that I think should be shared.
1: The all-time record for the median price of Las Vegas homes is $315,000 in 2006. Adjusting for inflation, the peak price was above $399,300 in today’s dollars. So we are still far from the true record as December’s median home price was $314,000.
2: Listing site Realtor.com predicted in a forecast released Wednesday the median sales price of previously owned homes will fall 1.1 percent in Southern Nevada in 2020, compared with a 0.8 percent gain nationwide.
While we explained in the unusual Las Vegas real estate market forecast for 2020, the true measure of home price gains or losses is the price per square foot ratio. It appreciated by 2.4% in 2019, but the same for 2017-2018 was in double-digit numbers.
If the current economic trends continue, we should see higher median prices and prices per square foot, probably in the 6% range.
We think that when April or May 2020 arrives, home buyers will figure out that the big price drops that they are hoping for will not materialize, they will come back to the market to buy. Especially with the currently hot economy. We currently have about 24 billion dollars in large commercial properties like the Allegiant Stadium that are currently under construction.
Additionally, cash flow from investing in Las Vegas real estate is still very good and if prices go down, large investors will gobble up the good deals. Good investment properties return more than 5% in cash flow while in 2005-2008 the cash flow was less than 1% or negative.
Lastly, just as we said in our market report, we are not economic experts and if another big recession arrives, all bets are off.