Las Vegas high-rise condo market updates

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If you search for Las Vegas high-rise condo market, you will quickly find that we are the only Realtors who are providing formal Las Vegas real estate market reports based on relevant statistics.
News organizations, as well as most Realtors, get their market updates from the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, but they don’t publish one for this sector. This is the reason that we do our own research and publish the results. Please click on pictures to go to the video page.

Las Vegas high-rise condo market forecast for 2020

Like other sectors, prices went up significantly in 217-2018, but price gains stopped in 2019. However, some projects appreciated far more than others, which we will discuss in the upcoming blog post, the best appreciating Las Vegas high-rise condo towers since 2017.

Additionally, we will show why median price totally fails to show market direction in this sector.

Video:

Video thumbnail for Las Vegas high-rise condo market for October 2019

Video Transcript:

Why do we spend so much time and emphasis on Las Vegas high-rise condo market updates?

Because in order to make correct offers on a unit or a correct asking list price one needs to know the market conditions, and it has changed significantly from last year. So let’s see what has changed.

The Las Vegas high-rise condo market has witnessed significant appreciation in 2017 and 2018. However, price gains came to a halt is 2019. We will not only discuss the reasons why, we will tell you where the price gains went. Some towers appreciated far more than others which we will discuss in the best appreciating Las Vegas high rise condo towers since 2017  . And lastly we will make a prediction for the first few months of 2020.

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Higher listings inventory and lower sales numbers in 2019

Just like the other sectors, this market has slowed down in 2019. The listing inventory has risen sharply, while sales numbers have been down. We will discuss how it affects the market.

 Active listingsForeclosuresShort SalesAverage units sold per month in 2019Median price, October 2019
Las Vegas high-rise condos5483447$388,000

As of October 2019 we have 548 Las Vegas high-rise condo for sale listings of which 3 are foreclosures and another 4 short sales. These have negligible effect on the market, so we will not discuss them.

 An average of 47 units have been sold per month in 2019. The median price of Las Vegas high-rise condos is $388,000.

High-rise condo listings versus unit sales

The listing inventory has shot up since 2019. As of October 6, 2019 we have 548 active listings which is 30% higher than the same time last year.

At the same time, average unit sales have fallen from about 71 condominiums in 2018 to an average of 47 units per month in 2019, this is a 34% reduction from 2018.

The months of high-rise listing inventory is up sharply in 2019

The months of listing inventory is calculated by dividing the active listing inventory by the monthly unit sales.  From March 2017 to November 2018 it had been hovering around 5.5 months which resulted in significant price gains. However, it jumped to 11 months in January 2019 and has been fluctuating between 9 and 14 months ever since.

Why the median price of high-rise condos is misleading 

The median price of Las Vegas high-rise condos has been appreciating since 2016

The median price of units has been rising since 2016 and this graph shows about $30,000 appreciation so far in 2019.  But all it says is, buyers are buying a bit more expensive units. However, it does not show whether or not condo prices have gone up or down, and in this case it is totally misleading.

We will let you in on a secret. The price per square foot ratio is a far better measure of the market than the median sales price, as price per square foot ratio is the lowest common denominator for all units in a tower.

Price per square foot of units sold from 2016 to 2019

As you can see lower months of listing inventory has contributed to $43 gain in price per square foot, or 13.2% increase in 2017 and 2018, however price gains came to a stop in 2019.

Now if all towers sold the same mix of units year after year, changes in price per square foot ratio would be an exact match for unit prices. But then again, they don’t. But it is still the best measure which closely approximates whether unit prices have gone up or down.

If you Google Las Vegas high-rise condo market, you will see articles about the raising unit sales numbers and appreciating prices. Both are wrong, however those who are talking about raising prices, erroneously back up their claim with the raising median prices.

For example, the median price of condos by primary year at Waldorf Astoria (formerly Mandarin Oriental) shows a $738,750 drop in 2018 from 2017.

The median price units sold at City Center Waldorf Astoria

While the median price of Waldorf Astoria shows a big drop, unit prices were going at an unbelievably high rate.

Waldorf Astoria, Las Vegas unit numberSale DatePriceResale DatePricePercentage appreciation, period
45026/22/2017$2,000,00012/7/2018$3,600,00080% in 17 months
40028/10/2017$2,340,000Active listing$3,785,00061%, to be sold
46011/5/2017$1,825,00012/27/2017$2,550,00039.7% in 12 months
47071/4/2018$2,900,0001/10/2019$3,990,00037.6%, in 12 months
41022/28/2018$2,700,00010/5/2018$3,600,00033.3% in 7 months
37102/26/2018$850,0008/16/2019$1,100,00029.4% in 17 months
32112/26/2018$850,0005/3/2019$1,100,00024% in 14 months
36092/28/2018$2,100,0008/20/2018$2,500,00019% in 6 months

Unit 4502 was purchased for $2,000,000 in June, 2017 and sold for $3,600,000 in December 2018. Or unit 4601 which was purchased for $1,825,000 in January 2017 and sold for $2,550,000 in December of the same year.

Price per square foot of City Center Waldorf Astoria condos shows raising prices

The price per square foot for the Waldorf Astoria shows a 34% appreciation rate for the units from January 2017 which is backed up with the CMA (comparative market analysis). The median price is indeed misleading.

Price gains or losses are not distributed evenly among all towers. Some have appreciated far more than others. We discuss individual tower price gains in the best appreciating Las Vegas high rise condo towers since 2017.

As we show, Waldorf Astoria was the best appreciating tower from 2017 with an amazing 34% price per square foot appreciation.

 Las Vegas high-rise condo market forecast

One thing for certain, until the months of listing inventory drops sharply, don’t look for price gains. However, it doesn’t mean that unit prices will decrease significantly in the short term either, as we have entered the slow season. While 11-14 months of listing inventory would have a greatly adverse effect on let’s say home prices, it is not the same for high-rise condos. Given the low number of units available in Las Vegas, this effect is far less than other sectors. We have just so many luxury units here.

We shall see in the next few months, but we highly doubt if unit prices appreciate when we enter the high-season next year either.

Please see our Las Vegas high-rise condo market updates for the most recent posts.

If you like to buy or sell high-rise condos please call us at 702-478-7800 to start the process.

Las Vegas high-rise condo market updates was last modified: January 10th, 2020 by masouds