Las Vegas Housing Market Updates

The most accurate analysis and predictions about the Las Vegas housing market

Las Vegas housing market updates that you read in news publications are from the Realtor Association’s monthly report. However, this report is incomplete and often misleading.

One of the most prominent errors is using the median price of Las Vegas homes or condos, which only show market direction, instead of price per square foot of homes or condos. Only the price per square foot measures whether or not home prices have gained or lost. We discuss it in a blog post titled median price doesn’t measure home price gains, losses. What does?

Additionally, our Realtor Association doesn’t publish a report about high-rise condos. We do our own research and publish the only formal Las Vegas high-rise condo market updates and forecast to be found online.

Mastery of the Las Vegas housing market allows us to set an accurate price on home, condo or high-rise listings. And the ability to forecast significant changes in Las Vegas real estate market way before they happen or when a sharp downturn is underway.

Las Vegas real estate market October 2021, flat pricing

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As we have repeatedly written, home price appreciations slowdown in August or September to Christmas in a typical Las Vegas real estate market.

It is much easier to buy a home or condo from Thanksgiving to Christmas, which is the last opportunity to buy before they start to go up in February of the following year. So while a year that home prices escalate by 21% in the first nine months is anything but typical, the market has nevertheless temporarily slowed down.

In this video, we discuss:

Why even the 1.1 months of active home listing inventory that you see in news articles is misleading. In reality, most buyers are priced out of a quarter of the meager available home listings, which we will explain by showing you active listings by price range, plus the supply and demand ratio for sold homes.

The median price and price per square foot of Las Vegas houses by October 2021

Las Vegas home price appreciation rates per month in 2021

Why are we predicting further home price appreciations in the future?

What should buyers do in the current market? We will talk about getting under-written-approved to compete with cash buyers on the buyer side

If home sellers have to sell by February of 2022, why for the first time in a few years, we recommend that they list their home for sale right now.

Las Vegas housing market statistics for single-family homes by October 2021

Price rangeLess than $250,000$250,000 to $376,000
FHA loan
$377,000 to $658,000
Conventional loan
More than $659,000
Jumbo loan
Las Vegas active home listings386201880888
Las Vegas home sales September 202110311391540458

The active listing inventory of single-family houses at the beginning of October 2021 stands at 3426, while 3,689 home listings have been added, and 4193 are currently under contract.

However, home sales have dropped to 3229, virtually unchanged from August sales which is not unusual. Days on the market until going to the contract have risen by three days from August to 19 days in September, and the ratio of sales price to the original asking list price is at 100%.

After a week of listing a condo, we got two phone calls from buyer's agents on the same day stating that they would make an offer on it. A day later, we got a full-price cash offer which the seller accepted. Three days later, we got a financing offer of $15,000 less than the asking list, which we rejected. So three days late and $15,000 short will not get her anywhere.

Here is the difference between a good buyer's agent knowledgeable about the Las Vegas real estate market and one who isn't. One succeeds, and the other one fails and keeps failing.

Las Vegas active home listings and home sales by price range

Price rangeLess than $250,000$250,000 to $376,000
FHA loan
$377,000 to $658,000
Conventional loan
More than $659,000
Jumbo loan
Las Vegas active home listings386201880888
Las Vegas home sales September 202110311391540458

To gain some insight into available listings, we are going to show them by price range. As of October 5, 2021, only 38 available home listings or listings that aren't under contract are published in the MLS with an asking list price of less than $250,000. Please note that we are pulling all houses in a city of two million without filters like bedrooms, baths, lot area, or location. One hundred three single-family homes have sold in this price range in September. So demand is outpacing the supply by 270%.

 Of these, only 3 are two stories built after 2000. Thirty-three were one-story homes built more than 40 years ago.

The following price range is from $251,000 to $376,000, the FHA loan limit, plus a 3.5% down payment. Only 620 listings are available in this price range, including 176 two-story houses, 438 one stories, and only 188 were built after 2000. One thousand two hundred thirty-four home listings have sold in September in this price range. So demand is at 180% of the supply. Homes priced less than the FHA loan limit are responsible for the price hikes in September.

So, FHA loan buyers who used to represent most transactions can choose from only 658 listings in the Las Vegas metro and are priced out of the rest.

The conventional loan limit in Clark County is $548,250, which with the addition of a 20% down payment equals $658,000. One thousand eight hundred eighty houses are listed in this price range, while 1540 units have closed in September. So, the demand to supply ratio is at 82%.

So even conventional loan buyers with a 20% down payment are priced out of 888 of 3,426 listings and have 2538 choices which are more than double of 1298 listings in June 2021. The slowdown in home price appreciation can be partially attributed to this increase. Demand is only 51% of the listings supply in this price range.

The other reasons for the slowdown in price gains are lower cash flow from investing in Las Vegas real estate, which has decreased by a couple of points since January—again resulting in a pullback by the investors.

Median price and price per square foot of Las Vegas homes by October 2021

Median price Las Vegas homes September 2021 is unchanged from the last month

The median price of Las Vegas for September is $406,100, which is about .5% higher than August and 17.7% higher than January 2021. But the median price only shows the market activity in lower price ranges.

Price per square foot of Las Vegas homes in September 20201 has increased by less than 1%

A better criterion to measure home price appreciation is the price per square foot of units calculated by dividing the total square footage of all houses sold with accumulated price in a period. For example, the price per square foot of single-family homes for September 2021 is $230 per square foot.

Las Vegas home price appreciation rates per month in 2021

This table shows the Median and the price per square foot appreciation of homes sold in several periods. We will show the median price gains but will discuss price per square foot appreciations.

Las Vegas single-family homes, dateLast 12 monthsFebruary 2021March 2021April 2021May 2021June
2021
July
2021
August
2021
September
2021
January to September2021
Las Vegas single-family homes, date20%2.9% or
$10,000
2.25%
$8,000
3.3%
$12,000
2.7%
$10,000
2.6%
$10,000
2.5%
$10,000
-.25%
-$1,000
.5%
$2,000
17.7%
Price per square foot appreciation25%3.15%3%3%3.85%2.3%2.7%.45%.9%21%

The above table shows the price per square foot appreciation in the last twelve months and every month in 2021. Las Vegas homes price per square foot appreciated by an incredible rate before August. After a respite, price gains will start in 2022, as we will explain why later.

Las Vegas real estate market forecast for the reminder of 2021

Tight inventory is not unusual in the Las Vegas real estate market.

In the last four years and five months, we have hit four months of listing inventory once and have been over three months inventory for seven months. So the months of listing inventory have been less than two months for about 29 months.

In 2017 the months of listing inventory hovered around 1.5 months for the last ten months, resulting in 14.5% in home price appreciation. And in 2018, when the months of listing inventory hovered about 1.8 months, home price gains stood at 12.75%. So as long as the listing inventory stays less than two months, one would expect high single-digit to low double-digit home price gains. And we need a 90% increase in the months of listing inventory to get there. So that is the reason for predicting further home price appreciation in 2022. But since the demand comes down in fall and winter, the months of inventory will go higher until the end of the year.

What should financing buyers do in a strong seller market?

Buyers should get underwritten-approved or close to it before making an offer so they can successfully compete with the cash buyers.

Underwritten-approved means that the buyers have done everything they will do after getting into a contract before writing a contract. We have explained how in the home buying tutorials. We highly recommend that prospective buyers watch it.

Why are we recommending to list your home right now for the first time in a few years?

On the seller side, if you have to sell your home in the next five months, go ahead and list your home right now and preferably with us. We have extensively researched how to get the best price out of a listing, and it works like a charm. Please call us at 702-478-7800 to start the process.

You want to avoid selling your residence from Thanksgiving to Christmas, and prices don't start to escalate until March 2022. So it is best to list it right now. Additionally, we live in turbulent times, and there is no guarantee that we will highly doubt the same appreciation rates in 2022.

What should happen for prices to come down appreciably and why financing buyers shouldn't wait for it?

For home prices to come down significantly, mortgage interest rates need to go higher. Keep in mind that the reason for the eye-popping home price appreciation has been historically low-interest rates. However, inflation risk is real, and interest rates could go up. Given that mortgage payments for a one-point increase in the interest rate equals 10% in home price appreciation, financing buyers may not profit from home price cuts due to rising mortgage rates.

Las Vegas condos and townhomes market mirrors the single-family homes market, and our outlook for this sector is the same.

If you want to buy or invest in Las Vegas homes, condos or townhomes, please call us at 702-478-7800.  Please find our contact info and web page with the embedded video and video transcript in the video description.

Please like, share, and subscribe to our Las Vegas real estate channel for upcoming videos.

This is Karen Saberzadeh of Realty One Group and Las Vegas homes, condos, and luxury high-rise condos wishing you a great day on behalf of the Saber Team.

Las Vegas housing market September 2021

In typical Las Vegas real estate markets, home prices start to appreciate in January, pick up steam in April, and go up the highest in June and July. Then housing market slows down in September through November, and home prices go down a bit from Thanksgiving through Christmas.

Home listings inventory is at 3760; additionally, 4171 units are currently under contract, while 3985 new listings were added in September. Unit sales stand at 3,210 with the record median price of $405,000, about 21% higher than last year.

Real estate supply and demand is calculated by the months of listing inventory and stand at 1.17 months. A four-month worth of listing inventory is considered normal. The median price of single-family homes in September is $403,000.

The price per square foot of houses sold in August stands at $228, showing a one-dollar gain from July. The reason could be due to a pullback from owner-occupied buyers and resistance from the investors due to falling cash flow from raising prices.

Las Vegas Housing Market for Condos and Townhomes

The same didn’t happen in the condos and townhomes market, and the price per square foot of condos gained an eye-popping 4.55% last month. We currently have 795 active townhouse and condo listings in Las Vegas MLS, while the sales number stood at 888 with the record median price of $229,000. That puts the months of listing inventory at .9 months. Additionally, 1114 units are currently under contract, while 1000 listings were added in the same period. All units, even those that are a little overpriced, sell in less than a month.

The sales price to the original asking list price is always high, higher than 100%. While some people hate this, we predict price gains for the remainder of 2021 due to meager months of listing inventory.

August 2021 Las Vegas real estate market conditions

The listing famine, which is responsible for eye-popping price gains in the Las Vegas housing market, continues.

 In July 2021, 3563 listings that are not under contract were published in the Las Vegas MLS. Four thousand seventy-seven new listings were added in July, while 4246 listings were under contract.

3,352 homes were sold in July, which puts the months of listing inventory calculated by dividing the available listings by units sold at about one month. Four months’ worth of listing inventory is considered normal and leads to neutral pricing.

The Median Price of Las Vegas single-family homes for July stands at a record $405,000, 2.5% higher than June and an incredible 22.7% higher than the same time last year. In addition, the price per square foot of houses which shows home appreciation stand at $227 per square foot, which is 2.7% higher than June and 25.4% higher than last July.

Lastly, it only takes an average of 16 days to sell a house in Las Vegas, while 89% of listings sell within a month.

Las Vegas condos and townhomes housing market August 2021

Seven hundred fifty-seven available condos and townhome listings are currently published in the Las Vegas MLS, while 873 units have sold in July. That puts the months of listing inventory at about .87 months while 1150 listings are under contract. The Median Price of Las Vegas condos and townhomes is $224,250, which is an unbelievable 3.8% higher than June. Additionally, the price per square foot of units at $227 per square foot is 3.3% higher than last month.

The average number of days to sell condos and townhomes is at 22 days.

Las Vegas real estate market forecast for September 2021

We expect the months of listing inventory to increase in the fall and winter but not to the degree that leads to neutral pricing. As a result, price gains should go on for the remainder of 2021 but hopefully not at the current pace.

Las Vegas housing market June 2021, exploding prices

There is a lot of talk about the Las Vegas housing market hitting a break since homes and condos sales have shrunk in May 2021. The meager months of listing inventory that you see in news articles is misleading FHA buyers can only make an offer on 615 listings. And even conventional loan buyers with a 20% down payment are priced out of 733 out of the 2031 available listings.

Las Vegas housing market forecast for July 2021

 We will additionally forecast how long the eye-popping price gains will go on and what buyers and sellers should do in this extreme seller market.

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Las Vegas Housing Market Updates was last modified: October 18th, 2021 by masouds